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Motion nr:224 ursprunglig versionVälj version:
Rubrik:* A Climate Law based on Carbon Budgets - Delivering on our Paris Commitments
Ämnesområde: Övergripande
Inskickad: 2018-03-01
Motionär:*Kevin Anderson, Isak Stoddard (*
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Föreslagna åtgärder:*
Use scientific carbon budgets to equitably align the Climate Law with Sweden’s Paris Commitments;
Exclude future Negative Emission Technologies or offsets in Sweden’s mitigation strategy, but do include emissions from all aviation & shipping;
Base the Climate Law on territorial emissions, but include consumption emissions (i.e. from imports & exports) whenever Government reports on its progress.

This motion calls for the Swedish Climate Law to have a scientific and equity-based carbon budget foundation that would directly inform all tiers of mitigation policy over the coming decades. This is a prerequisite for Sweden to be able to make its fair contribution to reducing emissions in line with the commitments enshrined in the Paris Agreement, leading to a rapid transformation to a fossil-free future. Mitigation efforts must deliver genuine reductions in CO2 emissions and not rely on future Negative Emission Technologies, international offsets or carbon sequestration in forests.

Motiv och bakgrund:*
This motion builds on research that the Centre for Environment and Development Studies (CEMUS) at Uppsala University and SLU have conducted during 2017 (see attached report).

In order to have a reasonable chance of meeting the Paris agreement's 2°C commitment, in the region of 500 to 650 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide can be released by the global energy sector (including transport and industry). This energy-only carbon dioxide budget assumes major reductions in process emissions from the global cement and steel industries and the early elimination of deforestation. Current global energy-only carbon dioxide emissions will exceed the entire 2°C carbon budget in as little as 14 to 18 years. The budget for the Paris 1.5°C objective would be used up much sooner. [1]

For Sweden, the Paris Agreement's 2°C commitment means a remaining carbon budget in the range of 300-600 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. With current annual emissions, this carbon budget will be used up in only 6-12 years. To remain within this 2°C budget, Sweden needs to begin an immediate programme of profound mitigation at a minimum annual rate of 10% in absolute terms - but quickly increase this rate up to 15 % per year. Any delay in starting, or in pursuing a rate below 10% per year, will either put a “likely” chance of 2°C beyond reach, or require even more challenging mitigation rates.

In 2016, “Miljömålsberedningen” (the Cross-Party Committee on Environmental Objectives) presented two reports [2] as the basis for the preparation of a proposal for a Swedish climate policy framework in the form of a “Lagrådsremiss” (proposal to the legislative council) in March 2017. [3] On January 1, 2018, the Swedish Climate law came into force, with a headline commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2045. Whilst establishing a binding national climate law is to be welcomed, it currently lacks a scientific foundation (carbon budget) and fails to adequately account for issues of equity. If Sweden is not to renege on its Paris commitments, the climate policy framework needs to urgently revisit the scale of mitigation based on cumulative emissions budgets and not long-term abstract political goals and ad hoc interim policies. Ultimately, the Swedish climate law needs to be comprehensive (including aviation and shipping), have an explicit and justified total carbon emissions for 2018 onwards and also an indicative emissions pathway with interim carbon budget periods (e.g. for 5 years).

A preliminary estimate of carbon dioxide emissions up until 2045, assuming the proposed climate policy framework, suggests emissions are set to be over twice as high as that dictated by the Paris 2°C commitment.

Sweden faces a stark choice. To acknowledge that it intends to renege on the Paris Agreement, favouring short-term economic gains whilst bequeathing future generations dangerous levels of climate change. Or, it initiates an immediate reassessment of its mitigation commitments and transform its policies across all departmental responsibilities to align with a 2°C future. Sweden’s long and deserved history as a progressive nation is open to scrutiny more than at any time in recent decades. Is Sweden to opt for short term hedonism or long-term stewardship; if it is to be the latter ambitious climate policies must be initiated without delay.

[1] Only if ‘real’ mitigation guided by the carbon budgets for a “likely” chance of 2°C are pursued and highly speculative negative emissions prove to be successful at an early and unprecedented planetary scale, can 1.5°C be considered achievable – at least theoretically.
[2] This conclusion is based on the fact that a balanced peak for emissions from poorer non-OECD countries occurs between 2022 and 2023, with a 10% annual emissions reduction by 2045 and over 95% reduction in emissions (as of 2015) in the early 2060s. This is a far more ambitious agenda for these countries than discussed in Paris.
[3] A climate policy framework for Sweden - A partial report from the Cross-Party Committee on Environmental Objectives [2016-03]: & A climate and air pollution control strategy for Sweden, Part 1 and 2, Cross-Party Committee on Environmental Objectives [2016-06]: luftvardsstrategi-for-sverige/
[4] “Lagrådsremiss” on a climate policy framework for Sweden [2017-02-02]: sverige/

Bilaga: Koldioxidbudget-och-vagar-till-en-fossilfri-framtid-for-Jarfalla-kommun-20171017.pdf